Cheap money built a generation of geared property companies. Then it disappeared. Between December 2021 and August 2023 the Bank of England raised its base rate fourteen times in a row, and in September 2022 the mini-budget repriced UK mortgages almost overnight. Public insolvency statistics tell you what has already failed as a result. GalimAI’s data does something more useful — it shows where the next strain is building, before it reaches the public record. This study uses that proprietary view.
What GalimAI’s own data reveals
Insolvency statistics are a lagging record of failure. GalimAI’s data is a leading one. Across the 463,022 property-owning companies and more than 1,000,000 owners it maps, every company carries its financing and distress signals — mortgage charges and bridging exposure, Gazette insolvency and winding-up notices, and dissolution activity — all tied to the directors behind them.
That lets GalimAI isolate exactly the cohort the rate shock threatens, rather than waiting for it to appear in a national total: the most heavily-leveraged property companies, those under bridging-finance pressure facing a refinancing wall, and the accelerating dissolutions our data tracked through 2025. GalimAI’s regional distress map shows where this concentrates down to individual towns — GalimAI’s tracking of fresh Gazette notices since January 2024, for instance, records clusters such as 50 in Birmingham, 48 in Leeds, 36 in Liverpool and 31 in Wakefield.
That is the unique value. The public data confirms the wave has arrived; GalimAI’s data names the specific companies riding it — which owner, which directors, which financing, which charge coming up for renewal — so a funded buyer can reach an owner directly before a forced sale ever reaches the open market.
What changed: the fastest tightening in decades
The base rate sat at its pandemic low of 0.1% until December 2021, then rose fourteen consecutive times to a peak of 5.25% in August 2023, as CPI inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022. It was held at 5.25% until August 2024, then cut to 3.75% by December 2025, where it remained when the Bank held rates on 30 April 2026.
On 23 September 2022 the mini-budget triggered a gilt-market rout. Lenders pulled 935 mortgage products in a single day — more than a quarter of the market — with around 40% of all mortgages withdrawn over the following days (Moneyfacts). The average two-year fix jumped from 3.66% to 5.9% in under two months. Buy-to-let products were hit just as hard.
The public backdrop
Public statistics confirm the damage. Company insolvencies in England and Wales reached 25,158 in 2023, the highest annual total since 1993 and 14% up on 2022. Construction was the worst-hit sector, with 4,371 insolvencies in 2023 — close to one in five of all cases — rising to 4,690 in the year to June 2024, up 53% on 2020. Failures stayed elevated into 2025 (23,938), and the real-estate sector itself then drove the rise: the Insolvency Service attributes the increase in March 2026 largely to more than 100 connected real-estate companies entering administration, with around 200 across March and April 2026.
Those totals are the lagging confirmation. GalimAI’s 463,022-company map, with leverage and distress signals attached, is the leading indicator of which companies join them next.
The most plausible mechanism
The channel is refinancing, not the headline rate on the day. Debt taken cheaply in 2020-21 came up for renewal into a 4-6% market; geared SPVs, developers and bridging-funded projects that penciled in cheap exits found those exits gone. Distress shows up 12-24 months after the rate move, which is why the 2023-24 insolvency peak follows the 2022-23 tightening. We frame this as a strong correlation with a well-understood mechanism, not single-cause proof — cost inflation, weak demand and the end of pandemic support fed the same numbers.
Sources
The proprietary figures in this study (the 463,022 companies, 1,000,000+ owners and the distress signals) are GalimAI first-party data. The public background figures are drawn from:
Frequently asked questions
What does GalimAI's own data add here?
Public insolvency stats are a lagging record of failure. GalimAI maps 463,022 property companies and 1M+ owners with live leverage and distress signals - charges, bridging exposure, Gazette notices, dissolutions - so it identifies the companies most exposed to refinancing now, before they appear in a national total.
How high did UK interest rates go?
From 0.1% in December 2021 to a peak of 5.25% in August 2023 - fourteen consecutive increases - then cut to 3.75% by December 2025, where it remained when the Bank held rates on 30 April 2026.
How bad were property insolvencies?
Company insolvencies hit 25,158 in 2023, the most since 1993. Construction was worst-hit (4,371 in 2023, rising to 4,690 by mid-2024). In early 2026 the real-estate sector drove the rise, with around 200 connected real-estate companies entering administration in March and April 2026.
Did rates cause the insolvencies?
Higher refinancing costs are a clear, well-understood driver and the timing fits a 12-24 month lag - a strong correlation with a credible mechanism, not single-cause proof.